Driverless cars, autonomous trucks, and even pilotless planes are no longer a futuristic dream; their wheels are turning on the highways or rather, runways. For example, in San Francisco, two taxi companies have already covered 8 million miles using this technology by August 2023. And while these taxi services, Waymo and Cruise, didn’t have any accidents throughout their run, people still have valid concerns about the safety of these systems. From June 2021 to May 2022, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported nearly 400 crashes involving autonomous vehicles using some form of driverless technology. Unfortunately, six people lost their lives in these incidents, with five others sustaining severe injuries.
But industry experts are not planning to stop there. Companies are consistently pushing extensive testing to accelerate driverless systems with LiDAR, radar, cameras, and other sensors. These achievements improve navigation in self-driving vehicles. Besides improved steering, autonomous vehicles are starting to sport artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms that allow them to make better real-time decisions, manage complicated circumstances, and adapt to changed settings. Read on for full insights about the safety in the age of autonomous vehicles.
Perspective From Autonomous Vehicle Industry Leaders
McKinsey’s 2023 survey shows that the autonomous vehicle industry is still in its inception phase, as vendors expect more setbacks and hurdles before the market reaches full maturity. Here are the most important details of this driverless market survey:
- The 2021 survey showed an average delay of two to three years in the adoption timeline for autonomous vehicles across all autonomy levels.
- L4 autonomous taxis are expected to be widely available by 2030.
- Fully autonomous trucks are expected to become viable between 2028 and 2031 due to ongoing technical obstacles and challenges with capital availability.
In addition, industry leaders are still struggling to seamlessly establish and execute regulatory changes since autonomous vehicles are still under development. However, a minority of well-funded pioneers are progressing towards amplifying deployment in different regions. In fact, more than 70% of surveyed decision-makers believe that we will soon witness the emergence of new market models. While established driverless vehicle manufacturers tend to prefer pay-per-use models, startups, for example, gravitate to subscription models. The survey also shows a difference between regions, where North American companies favor pay-per-mile, while European companies opt for pay-per-trip models.
On top of that, some offers combine per-mile and per-trip options, which is why they are becoming increasingly popular. Many company types in different regions have conducted a cost-based analysis of this hybrid autonomous mobility service and are starting to adopt it. The trend indicates that monetization models are adjustable and easy to experiment with. Projections from market experts are that we can expect more of these malleable models in the near future.
Autonomous Vehicle Market Size, Share, and Growth Forecast
With a substantial share of roughly 19% in 2023, North America is the most prominent region in the global autonomous vehicle market, experiencing rapid acceleration. The escalation in fatalities, as well as migraine-inducing traffic congestion incidents, along with an increased desire for convenience, especially from commuters, are calling for safer and more efficient transportation options across North America.
To mitigate these issues and facilitate deployment, more and more governments are investing in driverless tech. A vast array of guidelines and regulations to speed up autonomous vehicle testing is underway. Checking the table below, we see North America’s market shows the most promise as it is saturated with tech-savvy consumers, startups, and early adopters. Plus, there is traditionally a strong tendency toward embracing new technologies. Look at the table below to inspect the North American AV industry timeline.
| Region | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| North America | 320.84 | 359.25 | 304.88 | 329.37 | 348.59 | 388.07 |
| Europe | 282.08 | 311.49 | 260.8 | 278.06 | 290.52 | 319.39 |
| Asia Pacific | 1,078.27 | 1,177.65 | 975.17 | 1,028.31 | 1,062.62 | 1,155.41 |
| Latin America | 80.98 | 87.71 | 72.02 | 75.29 | 77.12 | 83.1 |
| MEA | 57.69 | 61.94 | 50.4 | 52.19 | 52.94 | 56.47 |
| Total | 1,819.86 | 1,998.04 | 1,663.26 | 1,763.22 | 1,831.79 | 2,002.45 |
*The values are in USD Billion.
Source: gminsights.com
These statistics show that the North American market is the most fertile ground for innovations. It is capable of enormous growth, bolstered by robust tech advancements, favorable regulatory environments, and grand economic gains. Investing in LiDAR, radar, cameras, and other sensor advancements makes autonomous vehicles more precise and reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms improve real-time decision-making and adaptability. Faster sensor data processing on the car is made possible by advancements in chip technology, boosting reaction times and decision-making.
Technological improvements in the last ten years have backed up the market in various ways, with safety procedures on the front line. Modern safety precautions reduce the risk of system failure and enhance overall safety by a great margin. For example, that allowed Tesla to develop an upgraded but still beta version of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability in November 2023. The update boasts better lane-changing alignment and improved precision. While FSD isn’t a completely autonomous system yet, counting only as driver assistance, it still pushed the boundaries of this futuristic driving technology.
Trucks Driving Themselves Towards the Future
Aurora Innovation is set to start testing autonomous semi-trucks on Interstate 45 between Dallas and Houston sometime in 2024. The company already oversees nearly 50 weekly trips with its autonomous driving system, Aurora Driver, which has the public greatly concerned about whether these trucks will put drivers out of work. However, Aurora CEO Chris Urmson remains undeterred, announcing that their driving system is now feature-complete (FC), which means it is close to completion. Self-driving-car pioneer and Aurora CEO Chris Urmson insists driverless trucks won’t immediately put people out of jobs—even as he moves full speed ahead with his company’s self-driving software. Still, some bugs, performance, or stability issues must be fixed, but they are still close to deploying autonomous trucks. The next milestone that awaits them is to fully develop the “Aurora Driver-ready” status, which will finalize the evolution of trucks that operate without needing humans to control them.
Apple’s Pivot from Project Titan to Generative AI
In contrast to Aurora’s success, Apple recently published a bleak update regarding their “Project Titan,” announcing they had to cancel. Their statement says they had to “kill their robotaxi project” because of several failed partnerships and production challenges. The tech giant plans to concentrate on generative AI instead.
Even though Apple’s driverless vehicle is out of the game, Apple will remain significant in the automotive industry thanks to its CarPlay system, garnering attention from major automakers. It seems that, despite their pivot toward AI endeavors, new opportunities await the tech behemoth, but the changes threaten to result in layoffs. However, experts are hopeful that the Titan resources will trickle into other (unreleased) Apple projects, keeping both money and people at the corporation.
Self-Driving Taxis Enter Los Angeles County
In March 2024, Waymo, a self-driving taxi company owned by Alphabet (Google’s parent company), received approval to expand its services to Los Angeles County. The driverless, ride-hailing service is decked out in AI, lidar, cameras, and radar for safe navigation, and the all-electric SUV Jaguar I-Pace is currently being used in San Francisco and Phoenix. The Waymo robotaxi carries insurance coverage for its vehicles and has cameras to record the events, but Waymo owns the footage.
Public reception is mixed, as autonomous vehicles raise questions about liability in case of collision with pedestrians or property. At the end of the day, until driverless vehicle companies can guarantee safety, we cannot allow them to have full autonomy when it comes to developing self-driving systems and guidelines. When it comes to LA, Mayor Karen Bass, for one, has appealed to the public to remain skeptical toward autonomous vehicles, inciting authorities to conduct stricter regulations. She has also leaned into her own position of power and reminded the public of incidents like when the Waymo robotaxi failed to stop for a traffic officer in August 2023.
Perception Contracts Assuring Safety in Autonomous Vehicles
With nearly 400 crashes involving autonomous control-equipped cars in recent years, it’s no wonder the public is not convinced yet. But to be fair, road safety doesn’t depend only on drivers, or in this case, driverless vehicles. There are many factors and participants on the road, and pedestrians also hold responsibility in certain situations, just like the weather, traffic signs, and lights, and the roads themselves add to specific scenarios. However, it is safe to say that developers are working on their part of the deal, trying to ensure safety in terms of autonomous vehicles. Sayan Mitra and his team at the University of Illinois have developed a new safety measure that improves lane-tracking for cars and landing systems for autonomous aircraft. In fact, their project has caught Boeing’s eye, and they are planning a test of this new feature on an experimental aircraft later this year.
Driverless vehicles have two main components:
- Perception system: employs machine learning algorithms to understand and map out the environment outside the car and
- Control system: decides what action to take based on what information the perception system feeds it.
Mitra’s team developed a safety system called a perception contract for self-driving cars that combines perception and control components. Perception contracts verify the vehicle can safely traverse its surroundings and calculate possible errors, guaranteeing that it meets all the requirements.
A Vision of Driverless Future
In conclusion, the driverless and pilotless vehicles market is evolving rapidly, boosted by investments and technological advancements. Finally, as we march deeper into 2024, we see that automating transport is boosted by market trends and regulatory frameworks. However, there is an elephant in the middle of the highway named Safety Concerns. Industry analysts hope stakeholders will come to the rescue, as they have been actively pursuing solutions to safety and regulatory challenges. But with Apple’s struggles and Tesla’s delays, we see that pushing the boundaries of innovation requires more patience.
Autonomous vehicle safety cannot rely on real-life testing anymore, as the public is skeptical about empty cars wheeling down the interstate. The future of this technology demands a multifaceted approach, from rigorous testing to strict regulatory oversight. Regardless, experts share the belief that with continued collaboration and dedication, we can reach all our futuristic dreams.
